Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Novaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Bane
Kaori · 25 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 23 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 15 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 13 games
Grimstroke
[T]SA · 13 games
Weaveroften banned
Kaori · 13 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Iceberg · 12 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
lightless · 12 games
Nova
Death Prophetoften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
Dragon Knight
Bb3px · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 4 games
Snapfire
so bad · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
foryou · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
paradise' · 3 games
Puckoften banned
foryou · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
swedenstrong · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
442 picks · 270 bans
Mars
396 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
315 picks · 598 bans
Weaver
314 picks · 407 bans
Tiny
308 picks · 346 bans
Queen of Pain
286 picks · 454 bans
Ember Spirit
278 picks · 391 bans
Kunkka
266 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Nova
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:26
Team Empire 59%Nova 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 52:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinCooman
Phantom Lancerparadise'
Sand KingDodren
Void Spiritforyou
TimbersawDkFogas
MarsBb3px
HoodwinkAntares
Snapfireswedenstrong
Shadow Demon[T]SA
Game 2prediction correct28:15
Team Empire 57%Nova 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 34:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidCooman
Weaverparadise'
NecrophosDodren
Ember Spiritforyou
MarsDkFogas
Dragon KnightBb3px
Shadow Demon[T]SA
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
ClockwerkAntares
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 66%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2