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BLAST Slam VII · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 33 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 27 games
59%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 26 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 23 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 23 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
73%

Aurora Gaming

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 64 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Mira · 59 games
61%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 56 games
66%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kaori · 49 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mikoto · 48 games
73%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Nightfall · 45 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Ws · 38 games
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mikoto · 37 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
609 picks · 380 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
503 picks · 278 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
498 picks · 583 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
474 picks · 394 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
414 picks · 576 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 948 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
340 picks · 285 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
339 picks · 884 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 63%
Hero pool strength54% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 4
Model total58% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:33
Team Falcons 46%Aurora Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
53% · 146 games48% · 371 game
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
45% · 259 games52% · 247 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Tiny
TinySkiter
54% · 500 games44% · 186 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Bane
BaneSneyking
58% · 192 games46% · 374 games
WarlockKaori
Warlock
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
51% · 215 games49% · 134 games
LionMira
Lion
Game 2prediction correct25:46
Team Falcons 44%Aurora Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
48% · 252 games46% · 218 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Razor
RazorATF
46% · 89 games52% · 184 games
DoomWs
Doom
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightSkiter
36% · 16 games46% · 97 games
ViperMikoto
Viper
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
51% · 345 games54% · 155 games
LionMira
Lion
Silencer
SilencerSneyking
53% · 115 games57% · 163 games
BaneKaori
Bane
Game 3prediction correct16:42
Team Falcons 46%Aurora Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 33:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
50% · 106 games52% · 199 games
WindrangerNightfall
Windranger
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightSumaiL
59% · 167 games46% · 287 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsATF
50% · 405 games42% · 262 games
PangolierWs
Pangolier
Chen
ChenSneyking
53% · 214 games53% · 45 games
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Ancient Apparition
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCr1t-
52% · 266 games45% · 365 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 58%
Series resultAurora Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3