The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:1
beastcoastloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 43 games
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 35 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 26 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 26 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 25 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 24 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
412 picks · 376 bans
Hoodwink
384 picks · 426 bans
Pangolier
373 picks · 538 bans
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
Weaver
331 picks · 723 bans
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 638 bans
Phoenix
315 picks · 616 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 730 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 38%
Hero pool strength62% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:18
Team Falcons 96%beastcoast 4%
The model gave 96% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by beastcoast in 42:58.
Game 2prediction correct39:6
Team Falcons 96%beastcoast 4%
The model gave 96% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 31:52.
Game 3prediction correct35:12
Team Falcons 96%beastcoast 4%
The model gave 96% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 40:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 96%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3