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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:1
BETBOOM TEAMloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 40 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 35 games
80%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
69%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
84%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 24 games
83%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
61%

BETBOOM TEAM

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 26 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
gpK~ · 20 games
80%
Lion
Lion
Save- · 18 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
TORONTOTOKYO · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
gpK~ · 16 games
69%
Invoker
Invokersignature
gpK~ · 16 games
75%
Techies
Techiessignature
Save- · 16 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 15 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
462 picks · 202 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
444 picks · 832 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 667 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
430 picks · 591 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 175 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
388 picks · 694 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 621 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
383 picks · 297 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 43%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total69% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:4
Team Falcons 61%BETBOOM TEAM 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
ZeusSumaiL
50% · 100 games47% · 183 games
LunaNightfall
Luna
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
51% · 213 games51% · 147 games
TimbersawMieRo
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
50% · 231 game51% · 165 games
Storm SpiritgpK~
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaSneyking
57% · 210 games53% · 232 games
Crystal MaidenTORONTOTOKYO
Crystal Maiden
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
44% · 174 games47% · 201 game
LionSave-
Lion
Game 2prediction missed25:27
Team Falcons 60%BETBOOM TEAM 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 40:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
48% · 145 games49% · 193 games
GyrocopterNightfall
Gyrocopter
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
43% · 55 games51% · 35 games
SnipergpK~
Sniper
Kunkka
KunkkaSumaiL
42% · 118 games58% · 113 games
EnigmaMieRo
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
50% · 223 games55% · 259 games
TinySave-
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
52% · 169 games50% · 110 games
OracleTORONTOTOKYO
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 69%
Accuracy by game1 of 2