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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM TEAMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
68%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 29 games
69%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 24 games
54%

BETBOOM TEAM

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Save- · 47 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kataomi · 29 games
62%
Tusk
Tusk
Kataomi · 26 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MieRo · 24 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kataomi · 24 games
54%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Save- · 22 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Kiritych · 21 game
81%
Puck
Puckoften banned
gpK~ · 21 game
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
632 picks · 997 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 443 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
460 picks · 637 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 489 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
448 picks · 1052 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
444 picks · 280 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
420 picks · 584 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 517 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head6 – 3
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
Team Falcons 59%BETBOOM TEAM 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordSkiter
47% · 180 games46% · 361 game
GyrocopterKiritych
Gyrocopter
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
54% · 350 games53% · 399 games
MarsMieRo
Mars
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
47% · 315 games52% · 337 games
SlardargpK~
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
52% · 471 game46% · 592 games
JakiroKataomi
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskSneyking
49% · 695 games54% · 322 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct37:19
Team Falcons 59%BETBOOM TEAM 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperATF
47% · 129 games49% · 66 games
InvokergpK~
Invoker
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
54% · 159 games50% · 102 games
Void SpiritMieRo
Void Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
46% · 207 games51% · 159 games
AbaddonKiritych
Abaddon
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
47% · 202 games51% · 435 games
JakiroKataomi
Jakiro
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
52% · 239 games53% · 174 games
Shadow DemonSave-
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2