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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 55 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 45 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 31 game
58%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 28 games
57%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%

Gaimin Gladiators

Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 36 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Quinn · 22 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Watson · 17 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Seleri · 16 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Ace · 16 games
44%
Mirana
Miranasignature
tOfu · 16 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 15 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Watson · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 686 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
437 picks · 705 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 412 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
413 picks · 323 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
376 picks · 875 bans
59%
Magnus
Magnus
376 picks · 957 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
371 picks · 429 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 503 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total71% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:28
Team Falcons 63%Gaimin Gladiators 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 23:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
50% · 55 games45% · 57 games
Nature's ProphetWatson
Nature's Prophet
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
48% · 80 games54% · 50 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Chen
ChenSneyking
70% · 34 games58% · 23 games
VenomancertOfu
Venomancer
Spectre
SpectreSkiter
43% · 3 games37% · 59 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
53% · 30 games61% · 13 games
Ancient ApparitionMalady
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed26:33
Team Falcons 63%Gaimin Gladiators 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 37:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
55% · 124 games48% · 336 games
Dragon KnightWatson
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
54% · 116 games43% · 84 games
Queen of PainQuinn
Queen of Pain
Dazzle
DazzleATF
58% · 28 games43% · 102 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyCr1t-
55% · 319 games48% · 196 games
WeavertOfu
Weaver
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
52% · 156 games44% · 25 games
SilencerMalady
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 71%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2