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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 5 games
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Malr1ne · 4 games
75%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Cr1t- · 4 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith King
Skiter · 4 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
ATF · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Sneyking · 3 games
100%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Skiter · 3 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Malr1ne · 2 games
100%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
mellojul · 9 games
78%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
88%
Lion
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 8 games
75%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Malady · 8 games
75%
Sven
Svensignature
Shigetsu · 8 games
75%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Malik · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
255 picks · 315 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
252 picks · 112 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
226 picks · 232 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
217 picks · 478 bans
63%
Pangolier
Pangolier
205 picks · 403 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
205 picks · 287 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
188 picks · 452 bans
60%
Muerta
Muerta
186 picks · 253 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:23
Team Falcons 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 51:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
51% · 132 games42% · 81 game
MuertaShigetsu
Muerta
Slark
SlarkSkiter
58% · 107 games52% · 94 games
Invokermellojul
Invoker
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
56% · 128 games46% · 118 games
TidehunterNefrit
Tidehunter
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSneyking
53% · 152 games39% · 193 games
PhoenixZayac
Phoenix
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
50% · 263 games51% · 296 games
TuskMalady
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct29:12
Team Falcons 55%Natus Vincere 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 28:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaSkiter
54% · 67 games50% · 90 games
MagnusNefrit
Magnus
Marci
MarciMalr1ne
44% · 106 games52% · 70 games
SvenShigetsu
Sven
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
54% · 121 game51% · 255 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Snapfire
SnapfireSneyking
52% · 230 games44% · 182 games
PhoenixZayac
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
45% · 152 games57% · 79 games
GrimstrokeMalady
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 64%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2