?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 31 game
77%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 27 games
59%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 26 games
77%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
76%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 25 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 18 games
89%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
GH · 15 games
53%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Fbz · 13 games
85%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
GH · 12 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
SumaiL · 11 games
73%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Fbz · 9 games
56%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Miracle- · 9 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ghost · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
341 picks · 254 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
340 picks · 282 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
331 picks · 436 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
307 picks · 518 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
305 picks · 297 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
303 picks · 346 bans
52%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 433 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
301 picks · 479 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Falcons 72%Nigma Galaxy 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 72%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1