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BLAST Slam II · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:1
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Nigma Galaxywin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 40 games
68%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 38 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 36 games
94%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 33 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 31 game
68%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 24 games
79%

Nigma Galaxy

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
GH · 22 games
68%
Mars
Marssignature
No!ob · 20 games
70%
Sniper
Snipersignature
SumaiL · 19 games
79%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 17 games
35%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 16 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
No!ob · 16 games
56%
Lion
Lionsignature
OmaR · 15 games
73%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
OmaR · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
469 picks · 400 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
463 picks · 566 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
445 picks · 549 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
424 picks · 528 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 772 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
411 picks · 451 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
404 picks · 232 bans
54%
Magnus
Magnus
397 picks · 861 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 56%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total87% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:38
Team Falcons 73%Nigma Galaxy 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 32:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
52% · 51 game54% · 195 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
43% · 152 games39% · 16 games
AbaddonGhost
Abaddon
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
51% · 89 games51% · 194 games
MagnusNo!ob
Magnus
Lich
LichSneyking
51% · 80 games51% · 61 game
IoGH
Io
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
46% · 108 games63% · 14 games
RikiOmaR
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 87%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1