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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:1
nounsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 46 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 33 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 33 games
82%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 31 game
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
61%

nouns

Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
81%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 20 games
70%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 18 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Fly · 15 games
53%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fly · 15 games
73%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
478 picks · 212 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 617 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 736 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
390 picks · 156 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
387 picks · 539 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
374 picks · 316 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
356 picks · 723 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 545 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:34
Team Falcons 82%nouns 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by nouns in 33:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
47% · 219 games50% · 194 games
TimbersawCopy
Timbersaw
Pangolier
PangolierNine
51% · 404 games55% · 217 games
GyrocopterYuma
Gyrocopter
Mars
MarsATF
50% · 250 games49% · 277 games
Primal BeastGunnar
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
44% · 177 games54% · 222 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Oracle
OracleSneyking
53% · 64 games48% · 204 games
GrimstrokeLelis
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct37:12
Team Falcons 81%nouns 19%
The model gave 81% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 30:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
47% · 96 games51% · 205 games
MedusaYuma
Medusa
Doom
DoomATF
53% · 341 game53% · 321 game
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNine
47% · 276 games53% · 265 games
TinyGunnar
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
47% · 147 games51% · 126 games
Dark WillowLelis
Dark Willow
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
49% · 247 games47% · 190 games
UndyingFly
Undying
Game 3prediction correct33:22
Team Falcons 82%nouns 18%
The model gave 82% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 49:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomATF
56% · 267 games46% · 49 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
48% · 84 games52% · 304 games
PangolierCopy
Pangolier
Slardar
SlardarNine
45% · 57 games48% · 229 games
MarsGunnar
Mars
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
54% · 405 games51% · 192 games
MiranaFly
Mirana
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
50% · 308 games47% · 347 games
RubickLelis
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 94%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3