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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 17 games
76%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 17 games
94%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 15 games
60%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cr1t- · 15 games
87%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 14 games
86%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 14 games
71%
Lina
Linasignature
Malr1ne · 13 games
77%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 11 games
73%

PSG Quest

Earthshaker
Earthshaker
No!ob · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 14 games
43%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Kaori · 11 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 10 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Kaori · 10 games
30%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Kaori · 10 games
50%
Lion
Lion
OmaR · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
337 picks · 506 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
292 picks · 434 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
283 picks · 245 bans
52%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
278 picks · 198 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
265 picks · 456 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
255 picks · 357 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
254 picks · 401 bans
56%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
252 picks · 735 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 68%
Hero pool strength63% Team Falcons
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total63% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:22
Team Falcons 59%PSG Quest 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 50:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreSkiter
45% · 81 game51% · 38 games
PudgeMalik
Pudge
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
50% · 145 games52% · 112 games
WindrangerTA2000
Windranger
Magnus
MagnusMalr1ne
54% · 214 games53% · 172 games
Ember SpiritNo!ob
Ember Spirit
Chen
ChenSneyking
54% · 69 games49% · 217 games
Nature's ProphetKaori
Nature's Prophet
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
44% · 176 games46% · 146 games
LionOmaR
Lion
Game 2prediction missed18:29
Team Falcons 58%PSG Quest 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 44:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
51% · 60 games59% · 22 games
MeepoTA2000
Meepo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
51% · 67 games55% · 243 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
51% · 103 games46% · 131 game
MarsMalik
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
50% · 258 games49% · 126 games
PugnaKaori
Pugna
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCr1t-
50% · 169 games44% · 135 games
LionOmaR
Lion
Game 3prediction correct45:8
Team Falcons 58%PSG Quest 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 28:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
48% · 63 games53% · 13 games
MeepoTA2000
Meepo
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
50% · 168 games58% · 149 games
TimbersawMalik
Timbersaw
Magnus
MagnusATF
45% · 209 games51% · 178 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
40% · 118 games51% · 185 games
EnchantressKaori
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
50% · 175 games53% · 208 games
BatriderOmaR
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 63%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3