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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 40 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 36 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
77%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 30 games
70%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
76%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
84%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
63%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 24 games
58%

Shopify Rebellion

Lion
Lionsignature
Thiolicor · 19 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
SabeRLight- · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 14 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 12 games
58%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
SabeRLight- · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
70%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Arteezy · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
465 picks · 202 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
445 picks · 832 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
443 picks · 666 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
435 picks · 591 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
410 picks · 176 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
389 picks · 699 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 621 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
384 picks · 296 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:9
Team Falcons 57%Shopify Rebellion 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 27:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracSumaiL
59% · 62 games55% · 26 games
Chaos KnightArteezy
Chaos Knight
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
56% · 86 games48% · 53 games
ZeusYopaj
Zeus
Brewmaster
BrewmasterATF
38% · 83 games54% · 149 games
KunkkaSabeRLight-
Kunkka
Hoodwink
HoodwinkCr1t-
41% · 74 games50% · 112 games
MiranaThiolicor
Mirana
Oracle
OracleSneyking
49% · 35 games
Game 2prediction missed10:36
Team Falcons 57%Shopify Rebellion 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 32:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterATF
38% · 83 games53% · 28 games
Chaos KnightArteezy
Chaos Knight
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
54% · 86 games52% · 53 games
ZeusYopaj
Zeus
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSumaiL
52% · 18 games48% · 187 games
KunkkaSabeRLight-
Kunkka
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
53% · 155 games58% · 125 games
MiranaThiolicor
Mirana
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCr1t-
42% · 51 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2