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DreamLeague Season 25 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 43 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 41 game
66%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 40 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 39 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 35 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Cr1t- · 28 games
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
73%

Shopify Rebellion

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Timado · 18 games
72%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Hellscream · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 17 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
mangekyou · 16 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 13 games
46%
Visage
Visageoften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
38%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
mangekyou · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
519 picks · 794 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 620 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
492 picks · 504 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
469 picks · 567 bans
50%
Muerta
Muerta
434 picks · 369 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
430 picks · 1009 bans
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
417 picks · 780 bans
56%
Bristleback
Bristleback
392 picks · 896 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:39
Team Falcons 66%Shopify Rebellion 34%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 42:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanSkiter
60% · 104 games51% · 270 games
DoomPakazs
Doom
Bristleback
BristlebackMalr1ne
53% · 278 games55% · 147 games
Monkey KingTimado
Monkey King
Tiny
TinyATF
50% · 461 game45% · 184 games
Earth SpiritYopaj
Earth Spirit
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
50% · 104 games46% · 160 games
ZeusSkem
Zeus
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
45% · 224 games46% · 410 games
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct36:10
Team Falcons 68%Shopify Rebellion 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 33:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerSkiter
54% · 139 games49% · 53 games
LycanPakazs
Lycan
Slardar
SlardarMalr1ne
54% · 82 games44% · 215 games
MorphlingTimado
Morphling
Magnus
MagnusATF
51% · 261 game43% · 136 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
54% · 302 games52% · 321 game
ClockwerkHellscream
Clockwerk
Riki
RikiCr1t-
56% · 70 games43% · 129 games
ZeusSkem
Zeus
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 79%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2