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ESL One Birmingham 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Liquidloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 41 game
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 37 games
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
62%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
76%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
79%

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 26 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 24 games
54%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
33 · 19 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 19 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 18 games
61%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 18 games
72%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 16 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
469 picks · 203 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
450 picks · 828 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
444 picks · 663 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
444 picks · 594 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
414 picks · 178 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
390 picks · 712 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
386 picks · 620 bans
53%
Techies
Techies
379 picks · 293 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total60% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:18
Team Falcons 56%Team Liquid 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterSkiter
44% · 182 games53% · 185 games
PuckNisha
Puck
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
38% · 97 games57% · 171 game
SvenmiCKe
Sven
Mars
MarsATF
48% · 190 games54% · 196 games
Kunkka33
Kunkka
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCr1t-
47% · 194 games55% · 130 games
TuskBoxi
Tusk
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
49% · 178 games55% · 159 games
DisruptoriNSaNiA
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed28:40
Team Falcons 58%Team Liquid 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 40:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
50% · 82 games47% · 154 games
LunamiCKe
Luna
Lina
LinaMalr1ne
41% · 84 games44% · 71 game
ZeusNisha
Zeus
Kunkka
KunkkaATF
45% · 157 games55% · 199 games
Doom33
Doom
Mirana
MiranaCr1t-
53% · 186 games54% · 166 games
EnchantressiNSaNiA
Enchantress
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
52% · 212 games58% · 131 game
DisruptorBoxi
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2