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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Spiritloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 37 games
84%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
83%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
65%
Luna
Lunasignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Puck
Pucksignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
82%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
82%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 20 games
80%

Team Spirit

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 22 games
73%
Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Larl · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
78%
Lion
Lion
Mira · 17 games
59%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Larl · 15 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Mira · 15 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
500 picks · 783 bans
56%
Batrider
Batrider
460 picks · 961 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
455 picks · 351 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
450 picks · 196 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
450 picks · 716 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
450 picks · 598 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
437 picks · 205 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
423 picks · 711 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 45%
Hero pool strength62% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:31
Team Falcons 63%Team Spirit 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 51:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverSkiter
52% · 78 games47% · 102 games
BloodseekerYatoro
Bloodseeker
Viper
ViperATF
48% · 45 games52% · 116 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Batrider
BatriderMalr1ne
57% · 272 games46% · 90 games
RazorCollapse
Razor
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCr1t-
53% · 94 games42% · 316 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
51% · 246 games50% · 111 games
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed28:42
Team Falcons 62%Team Spirit 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 45:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
51% · 112 games52% · 162 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Razor
RazorATF
41% · 82 games54% · 24 games
SniperLarl
Sniper
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
51% · 162 games58% · 68 games
UnderlordCollapse
Underlord
Marci
MarciCr1t-
46% · 31 game47% · 128 games
SnapfireMiposhka
Snapfire
Disruptor
DisruptorSneyking
51% · 135 games50% · 140 games
TuskMira
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 68%
Accuracy by game1 of 2