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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 49 games
69%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 47 games
77%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 40 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 38 games
74%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 33 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 31 game
81%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
74%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 29 games
76%

Team Spirit

Rubick
Rubick
Mira · 24 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Larl · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 23 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Miposhka · 22 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 22 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Mira · 22 games
59%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Collapse · 19 games
53%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 19 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
374 picks · 632 bans
51%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
315 picks · 362 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
313 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
312 picks · 440 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
298 picks · 540 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
285 picks · 174 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
284 picks · 176 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 379 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 54%
Hero pool strength61% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total73% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:20
Team Falcons 64%Team Spirit 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
51% · 244 games48% · 146 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Tiny
TinyMalr1ne
52% · 407 games53% · 211 games
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Broodmother
BroodmotherATF
41% · 53 games45% · 200 games
Dragon KnightLarl
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireCr1t-
44% · 145 games54% · 182 games
Shadow DemonMiposhka
Shadow Demon
Chen
ChenSneyking
64% · 98 games46% · 208 games
HoodwinkMira
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed21:39
Team Falcons 61%Team Spirit 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
38% · 4 games45% · 51 game
ClinkzYatoro
Clinkz
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
48% · 128 games48% · 152 games
SnapfireLarl
Snapfire
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderATF
56% · 24 games56% · 181 game
Primal BeastCollapse
Primal Beast
Enchantress
EnchantressCr1t-
52% · 135 games45% · 17 games
Nyx AssassinMira
Nyx Assassin
Phoenix
PhoenixSneyking
45% · 183 games54% · 73 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 73%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2