PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 53 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 42 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 40 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 36 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 31 game
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 25 games
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
Muerta
rue · 25 games
Tusk
rue · 25 games
Batridersignature
rue · 24 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Satanic · 22 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Collapse · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
516 picks · 731 bans
Phoenix
485 picks · 783 bans
Clockwerk
483 picks · 473 bans
Muerta
447 picks · 369 bans
Batrider
431 picks · 524 bans
Magnus
424 picks · 1041 bans
Bristleback
412 picks · 930 bans
Pangolier
393 picks · 535 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 72%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 6
Model total63% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:34
Team Falcons 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSkiter
TinyLarl
RazorATF
UrsaYatoro
SlardarMalr1ne
MagnusCollapse
RubickCr1t-
JakiroMiposhka
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Muertarue
Game 2prediction correct18:22
Team Falcons 45%Team Spirit 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DawnbreakerSkiter
TerrorbladeYatoro
LinaMalr1ne
AbaddonCollapse
Ember SpiritATF
Dragon KnightLarl
Bounty HunterCr1t-
MuertaMiposhka
JakiroSneyking
Keeper of the Lightrue
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 63%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2