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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Spiritloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 59 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 47 games
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 38 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 36 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 35 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 33 games
58%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 29 games
72%
Muerta
Muerta
Cr1t- · 29 games
59%

Team Spirit

Muerta
Muerta
rue · 32 games
59%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 29 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Larl · 29 games
76%
Tusk
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 25 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
70%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Miposhka · 22 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 699 bans
48%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
52%
Muerta
Muerta
417 picks · 307 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
409 picks · 398 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
374 picks · 852 bans
57%
Magnus
Magnus
372 picks · 984 bans
58%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
370 picks · 622 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
360 picks · 498 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 73%
Hero pool strength52% Team Spirit
Head-to-head6 – 7
Model total68% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:53
Team Falcons 38%Team Spirit 62%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 43:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
45% · 78 games54% · 138 games
Phantom AssassinYatoro
Phantom Assassin
Pangolier
PangolierATF
41% · 326 games58% · 103 games
Night StalkerCollapse
Night Stalker
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
52% · 165 games51% · 228 games
Storm SpiritLarl
Storm Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSneyking
57% · 39 games50% · 301 game
Tuskrue
Tusk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowCr1t-
45% · 193 games50% · 31 game
SilencerMiposhka
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed27:19
Team Falcons 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
HuskarMalr1ne
54% · 29 games41% · 78 games
MarsCollapse
Mars
Tidehunter
TidehunterSkiter
63% · 49 games54% · 85 games
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Viper
ViperATF
50% · 56 games47% · 53 games
LinaLarl
Lina
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
46% · 44 games49% · 75 games
Windrangerrue
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
45% · 135 games60% · 22 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed42:16
Team Falcons 39%Team Spirit 61%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 52:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
53% · 210 games53% · 193 games
MorphlingYatoro
Morphling
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
43% · 83 games50% · 243 games
TinyLarl
Tiny
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
51% · 188 games58% · 115 games
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterCr1t-
44% · 83 games51% · 132 games
Windrangerrue
Windranger
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
43% · 234 games52% · 115 games
Elder TitanMiposhka
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 68%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3