BLAST Slam VI · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Spiritloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Chensignature
Sneyking · 36 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 36 games
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 26 games
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 24 games
Marssignature
ATF · 24 games
Team Spirit
Tusksignature
rue · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 21 game
Jakirosignature
Panto · 20 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 19 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 19 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 17 games
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
615 picks · 941 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 439 bans
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 646 bans
Dragon Knight
489 picks · 650 bans
Shadow Demon
444 picks · 964 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 654 bans
Mars
393 picks · 537 bans
Warlock
385 picks · 235 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head8 – 6
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:17
Team Falcons 61%Team Spirit 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 50:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KezSkiter
Templar AssassinYatoro
RazorATF
MarsCollapse
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Ember SpiritMirele
WarlockSneyking
Hoodwinkrue
TinyCr1t-
MiranaPanto
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1