BetBoom Dacha Dota 2 2024 · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 3:2series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Tundra Esportsloss 2:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 48 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 27 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 26 games
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 26 games
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 25 games
Doomsignature
ATF · 23 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 23 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 23 games
Tundra Esports
Sand Kingsignature
Topson · 26 games
Clockwerksignature
Whitemon · 25 games
Marssignature
RAMZES666 · 24 games
Tuskoften banned
Whitemon · 20 games
Enchantresssignature
Whitemon · 17 games
Lunaoften banned
Pure~ · 17 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Saksa · 17 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Topson · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
353 picks · 315 bans
Tusk
342 picks · 465 bans
Pangolier
332 picks · 473 bans
Snapfire
309 picks · 190 bans
Enchantress
308 picks · 589 bans
Dragon Knight
275 picks · 449 bans
Luna
270 picks · 332 bans
Windranger
257 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Team Falcons
Head-to-head7 – 3
Model total72% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:33
Team Falcons 63%Tundra Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 49:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
LunaNightfall
DoomATF
Ember SpiritLorenof
HoodwinkCr1t-
Beastmaster33
GyrocopterSkiter
Shadow DemonSaksa
PhoenixSneyking
Elder TitanWhitemon
Game 2prediction correct30:17
Team Falcons 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 41:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendSkiter
Earth SpiritLorenof
PangolierMalr1ne
MedusaNightfall
MarsATF
Bristleback33
Ogre MagiSneyking
LionSaksa
Shadow DemonCr1t-
ClockwerkWhitemon
Game 3prediction missed14:30
Team Falcons 63%Tundra Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritMalr1ne
AlchemistNightfall
GyrocopterSkiter
ViperLorenof
MarsATF
Broodmother33
PugnaSneyking
ClockwerkSaksa
Shadow DemonCr1t-
PhoenixWhitemon
Game 4prediction correct39:16
Team Falcons 62%Tundra Esports 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 47:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSkiter
Shadow FiendNightfall
DoomATF
Broodmother33
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
Storm SpiritLorenof
HoodwinkCr1t-
MuertaSaksa
Crystal MaidenSneyking
TuskWhitemon
Game 5prediction correct39:37
Team Falcons 61%Tundra Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:12:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
UrsaNightfall
AlchemistSkiter
ViperLorenof
PangolierATF
Enigma33
ChenSneyking
Nyx AssassinSaksa
HoodwinkCr1t-
EnchantressWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 72%
Series resultTeam Falcons 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5