BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 0:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 29 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 23 games
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 18 games
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skiter · 16 games
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 16 games
Tundra Esports
Dark Seersignature
33 · 23 games
Tusksignature
Saksa · 23 games
Axesignature
33 · 21 game
Tiny
Saksa · 21 game
Pugnaoften banned
Saksa · 20 games
Shadow Shaman
Saksa · 20 games
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 19 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
624 picks · 309 bans
Disruptor
540 picks · 548 bans
Puck
399 picks · 1116 bans
Hoodwink
379 picks · 200 bans
Mars
359 picks · 613 bans
Pugna
352 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
349 picks · 160 bans
Tusk
346 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head7 – 7
Model total65% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
Team Falcons 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 56:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaSkiter
MuertaPure~
AbaddonATF
Timbersaw33
PangolierMalr1ne
Dragon Knightbzm
PugnaSneyking
HoodwinkAri
RubickCr1t-
BaneWhitemon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 65%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1