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Riyadh Masters 2025 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 47 games
51%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 36 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Sneyking · 34 games
59%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Huntersignature
Cr1t- · 29 games
62%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Skiter · 25 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Skiter · 24 games
46%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Sneyking · 23 games
52%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
65%

Virtus.pro

Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 24 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 22 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 19 games
53%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 18 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 17 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 13 games
62%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Antares · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
488 picks · 525 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 468 bans
47%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
360 picks · 202 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
355 picks · 361 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
350 picks · 738 bans
47%
Pangolier
Pangolier
348 picks · 520 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
318 picks · 202 bans
45%
Kunkka
Kunkka
315 picks · 511 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:9
Team Falcons 72%Virtus.pro 28%
The model gave 72% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 26:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
53% · 366 games49% · 442 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinySkiter
50% · 495 games42% · 425 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingMalr1ne
56% · 318 games52% · 194 games
Dark SeerDaxak
Dark Seer
Batrider
BatriderCr1t-
56% · 353 games44% · 450 games
TuskAntares
Tusk
Pugna
PugnaSneyking
51% · 135 games47% · 156 games
SilencerRein
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct36:8
Team Falcons 70%Virtus.pro 30%
The model gave 70% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 32:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkiter
54% · 159 games51% · 145 games
Queen of PainV-Tune
Queen of Pain
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
53% · 155 games47% · 257 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalr1ne
50% · 166 games48% · 77 games
OmniknightDaxak
Omniknight
Tusk
TuskSneyking
46% · 345 games52% · 268 games
MuertaAntares
Muerta
Disruptor
DisruptorCr1t-
41% · 63 games55% · 141 game
Naga SirenRein
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 86%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2