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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:0
series probability
90%10%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 35 games
66%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 30 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
64%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Cr1t- · 21 game
57%

Virtus.pro

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 35 games
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 25 games
52%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 25 games
52%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 24 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 24 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 20 games
80%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Hellscream · 18 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Abed · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
686 picks · 849 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
593 picks · 611 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 427 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
490 picks · 335 bans
47%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
423 picks · 1113 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1033 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
402 picks · 701 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 631 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 35%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total90% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:29
Team Falcons 76%Virtus.pro 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 45:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
52% · 227 games51% · 457 games
PuckAbed
Puck
Ursa
UrsaSkiter
54% · 240 games47% · 129 games
WeaverTimado
Weaver
Sand King
Sand KingMalr1ne
51% · 152 games42% · 133 games
BrewmasterSabeRLight-
Brewmaster
Batrider
BatriderSneyking
47% · 299 games53% · 244 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
52% · 342 games51% · 297 games
Shadow DemonHellscream
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct40:20
Team Falcons 75%Virtus.pro 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 44:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
51% · 22 games49% · 32 games
AlchemistTimado
Alchemist
Void Spirit
Void SpiritATF
49% · 177 games48% · 277 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
55% · 214 games48% · 143 games
DoomSabeRLight-
Doom
Batrider
BatriderSneyking
54% · 257 games42% · 238 games
Dark WillowHellscream
Dark Willow
Largo
LargoCr1t-
54% · 50 games50% · 30 games
Crystal MaidenFly
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 90%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2