?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 52 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 42 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Malr1ne · 39 games
54%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 36 games
89%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 31 game
61%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 28 games
64%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Skiter · 27 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Cr1t- · 24 games
58%

Xtreme Gaming

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Poloson · 38 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
Pyw · 24 games
58%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 22 games
41%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 20 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 17 games
59%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Poloson · 17 games
88%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niu · 16 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
niu · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
511 picks · 736 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
490 picks · 795 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
489 picks · 477 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
446 picks · 377 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
438 picks · 532 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
435 picks · 1038 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
409 picks · 939 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
391 picks · 529 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Team Falcons
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total63% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:23
Team Falcons 58%Xtreme Gaming 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 43:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMalr1ne
47% · 46 games58% · 86 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritATF
49% · 80 games52% · 68 games
BroodmotherAme
Broodmother
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSkiter
48% · 53 games44% · 27 games
AbaddonXxs
Abaddon
Weaver
WeaverCr1t-
52% · 61 game49% · 113 games
MarciXinQ
Marci
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
51% · 106 games42% · 52 games
UndyingUndyne_
Undying
Game 2prediction missed42:43
Team Falcons 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:19:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperMalr1ne
69% · 69 games49% · 139 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSkiter
54% · 100 games39% · 86 games
Phantom AssassinAme
Phantom Assassin
Tinker
TinkerSneyking
52% · 18 games49% · 125 games
Ember SpiritXm
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsATF
49% · 148 gameslittle data
Ancient ApparitionXinQ
Ancient Apparition
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCr1t-
53% · 90 games42% · 75 games
JakiroUndyne_
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct24:20
Team Falcons 57%Xtreme Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 1:07:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkiter
44% · 56 games55% · 265 games
PuckXm
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackATF
53% · 126 games51% · 182 games
LifestealerAme
Lifestealer
Pangolier
PangolierMalr1ne
48% · 375 games46% · 72 games
AbaddonXxs
Abaddon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenSneyking
50% · 276 games44% · 298 games
RubickXinQ
Rubick
Muerta
MuertaCr1t-
49% · 140 games56% · 156 games
JakiroUndyne_
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 63%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3