BLAST Slam V · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 1:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 31 game
Chensignature
Sneyking · 28 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 26 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 23 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 19 games
Marssignature
ATF · 18 games
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 16 games
Xtreme Gaming
Warlocksignature
xNova · 21 game
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 19 games
Puckoften banned
Xm · 18 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 16 games
Elder Titansignature
xNova · 14 games
Tusk
XinQ · 13 games
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 12 games
Shadow Fiendsignature
Xm · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
777 picks · 354 bans
Disruptor
583 picks · 593 bans
Hoodwink
563 picks · 299 bans
Dragon Knight
469 picks · 542 bans
Jakiro
467 picks · 286 bans
Tusk
466 picks · 273 bans
Mars
453 picks · 739 bans
Puck
435 picks · 1121 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)78% vs 59%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total85% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:21
Team Falcons 73%Xtreme Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 59:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackATF
TinkerNothingToSay
UrsaSkiter
MarciAme
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
TidehunterXxs
JakiroSneyking
Spirit Breakerfy
RingmasterCr1t-
PhoenixxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 85%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1