BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
ATF · 27 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
Bristlebacksignature
ATF · 20 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
Malr1ne · 17 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skiter · 15 games
Ringmaster
Cr1t- · 15 games
Svensignature
Skiter · 15 games
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 32 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 18 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 18 games
Silencersignature
Oli · 18 games
Dark Seersignature
zeal · 16 games
Medusaoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
570 picks · 286 bans
Disruptor
507 picks · 512 bans
Puck
379 picks · 1045 bans
Pugna
340 picks · 387 bans
Hoodwink
337 picks · 170 bans
Mars
334 picks · 566 bans
Warlock
334 picks · 156 bans
Tusk
321 picks · 237 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total88% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:8
Team Falcons 74%Yakult Brothers 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 25:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautSatanic
Tidehunterzeal
HuskarMalr1ne
Queen of PainEmo
PangolierATF
Weaverflyfly
RingmasterCr1t-
DisruptorPoloson
ChenSneyking
AlchemistBoBoKa
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 88%
Series resultTeam Falcons 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1