RES Regional Series: EU #4 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Hryvnialoss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Palianytsiawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Hryvnia
No games played over 6 months.
Palianytsia
Snapfire
QBFY · 5 games
Doomoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Moonlight · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Crystallize · 2 games
Morphlingoften banned
Crystallize · 2 games
Omniknightoften banned
kreker · 2 games
Tuskoften banned
kreker · 2 games
Alchemistoften banned
kreker · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
357 picks · 345 bans
Hoodwink
355 picks · 406 bans
Jakiro
347 picks · 258 bans
Pangolier
323 picks · 507 bans
Sven
294 picks · 305 bans
Snapfire
291 picks · 260 bans
Windranger
278 picks · 384 bans
Dragon Knight
276 picks · 454 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 43%
Hero pool strength57% Palianytsia
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Palianytsia
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:29
Team Hryvnia 42%Palianytsia 58%
The model gave 58% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 46:13.
Game 2prediction correct8:43
Team Hryvnia 42%Palianytsia 58%
The model gave 58% on Palianytsia — the game was taken by Palianytsia in 30:29.
Model check result
Model favoritePalianytsia · 58%
Series resultPalianytsia 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2