PGL Wallachia Season 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kukuyswin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ivoryloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Kukuys
Shadow Demonsignature
Jing · 8 games
Marcioften banned
Palos · 7 games
Queen of Painsignature
Yowe · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 5 games
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Armel · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Ivory
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rupido · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 6 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Ken · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Ken · 5 games
Rubick
Dric~ · 5 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Dric~ · 4 games
Lion
Dric~ · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ken · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
500 picks · 671 bans
Muerta
475 picks · 409 bans
Batrider
465 picks · 592 bans
Clockwerk
461 picks · 569 bans
Tiny
446 picks · 523 bans
Gyrocopter
429 picks · 796 bans
Magnus
417 picks · 939 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 45%
Hero pool strength60% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total72% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:13
Team Kukuys 63%Ivory 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 30:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingAbat
TinyKen
Keeper of the LightArmel
BristlebackRupido
ClockwerkPonyo
BatriderDric~
Game 2prediction correct49:21
Team Kukuys 58%Ivory 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 50:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyArmel
BristlebackRupido
Troll WarlordAbat
Earth SpiritKen
SilencerPonyo
Shadow ShamanDric~
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 72%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2