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DreamLeague Season 28. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Kukuysloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Nemesiswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Kukuys

Mars
Marssignature
JG · 8 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
DJ · 8 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Gabbi · 7 games
71%
Disruptor
Disruptor
DJ · 6 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
DJ · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Kuku · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 5 games
80%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
DJ · 4 games
50%

Team Nemesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Raven · 15 games
47%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Mac · 11 games
45%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 11 games
55%
Tusk
Tusk
Jhocam · 11 games
36%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Akashi · 11 games
45%
Pugna
Pugna
NARMAN · 9 games
56%
Sand King
Sand King
Mac · 9 games
44%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Akashi · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
566 picks · 730 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 360 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 659 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 552 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
393 picks · 134 bans
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 184 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
375 picks · 534 bans
51%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
373 picks · 618 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
Team Kukuys 49%Team Nemesis 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 40:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendGabbi
53% · 139 games50% · 194 games
Muerta23savage
Muerta
Puck
PuckArmel
49% · 296 games50% · 194 games
DoomRaven
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawJG
46% · 183 games44% · 43 games
TinkerJaunuel
Tinker
Pugna
PugnaDJ
54% · 197 games46% · 257 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenKuku
56% · 137 games50% · 264 games
Shadow ShamanJhocam
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed31:19
Team Kukuys 48%Team Nemesis 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 42:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracArmel
49% · 173 games53% · 142 games
Templar Assassin23savage
Templar Assassin
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerGabbi
48% · 24 games56% · 64 games
UnderlordRaven
Underlord
Mars
MarsJG
48% · 291 game51% · 139 games
SlardarMac
Slardar
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDJ
48% · 246 games53% · 86 games
WindrangerJhocam
Windranger
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKuku
69% · 15 games45% · 318 games
TuskJaunuel
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct11:26
Team Kukuys 44%Team Nemesis 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis in 42:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinGabbi
46% · 194 games55% · 199 games
Medusa23savage
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritArmel
47% · 277 games55% · 209 games
TimbersawRaven
Timbersaw
Axe
AxeJG
45% · 138 games55% · 29 games
Earth SpiritMac
Earth Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerDJ
48% · 119 games50% · 298 games
Shadow DemonJhocam
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroKuku
46% · 317 games54% · 310 games
Shadow ShamanJaunuel
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 56%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3