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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Team Kukuyswin 2:1
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Young Bloodloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Kukuys

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Jing · 8 games
75%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Palos · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Yowe · 6 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Palos · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Palos · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 5 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
75%

Young Blood

Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
LOyd · 3 games
33%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
dalul · 2 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
TraVins · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Red · 2 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
TraVins · 2 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Red · 2 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
LOyd · 2 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
dalul · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
470 picks · 599 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
464 picks · 398 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
453 picks · 564 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
431 picks · 537 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 780 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 480 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
402 picks · 893 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 46%
Hero pool strength51% Team Kukuys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total89% Team Kukuys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:47
Team Kukuys 89%Young Blood 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys in 57:33.
Game 2prediction missed35:20
Team Kukuys 89%Young Blood 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Young Blood in 45:04.
Game 3prediction correct
Team Kukuys 89%Young Blood 11%
The model gave 89% on Team Kukuys — the game was taken by Team Kukuys.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Kukuys · 89%
Series resultTeam Kukuys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3