BLAST Slam III · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 37 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 35 games
Muertasignature
Boxi · 30 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 28 games
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 24 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
miCKe · 22 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Muertasignature
Save- · 35 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 28 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Pure~ · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
gpK~ · 25 games
Batrider
Save- · 21 game
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Pure~ · 21 game
Crystal Maidensignature
Kataomi · 20 games
Lichsignature
Kataomi · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
456 picks · 660 bans
Jakiro
434 picks · 422 bans
Phantom Assassin
348 picks · 717 bans
Bristleback
319 picks · 638 bans
Muerta
312 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
309 picks · 508 bans
Beastmaster
302 picks · 604 bans
Warlock
297 picks · 272 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:39
Team Liquid 59%BETBOOM TEAM 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 30:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingmiCKe
TinyPure~
PangolierNisha
Sand KinggpK~
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
DoomMieRo
WeaverBoxi
Crystal MaidenFly
JakiroiNSaNiA
RubickSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1