The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DGG Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tiny
miCKe · 24 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
Razorsignature
zai · 15 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
zai · 14 games
Marcioften banned
Boxi · 14 games
Bristlebacksignature
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
Lone Druidoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 13 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
DGG Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
709 picks · 562 bans
Dawnbreaker
499 picks · 655 bans
Marci
496 picks · 793 bans
Puck
484 picks · 1024 bans
Winter Wyvern
369 picks · 425 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
324 picks · 157 bans
Razor
300 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 54%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:4
Team Liquid 75%DGG Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:47.
Game 2prediction correct30:3
Team Liquid 75%DGG Esports 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 75%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2