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DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
93%7%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ex-Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 37 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 32 games
66%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
77%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 28 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 23 games
78%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 23 games
57%

ex-Heroic

Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 4 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuma · 3 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Thiolicor · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
TaiLung · 3 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Thiolicor · 3 games
0%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Batyuk · 3 games
33%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Batyuk · 2 games
0%
Techies
Techies
Thiolicor · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
533 picks · 326 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
499 picks · 586 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
443 picks · 363 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
399 picks · 217 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
394 picks · 290 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 871 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
342 picks · 311 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
336 picks · 851 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 33%
Hero pool strength68% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total93% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct55:19
Team Liquid 79%ex-Heroic 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezmiCKe
55% · 153 games50% · 231 game
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Doom
DoomAce
45% · 156 games54% · 103 games
Faceless VoidYuma
Faceless Void
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
47% · 366 games43% · 346 games
Queen of PainTaiLung
Queen of Pain
Lich
LichtOfu
57% · 38 games51% · 368 games
HoodwinkThiolicor
Hoodwink
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
53% · 371 game45% · 36 games
Winter WyvernKJ
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct40:12
Team Liquid 79%ex-Heroic 21%
The model gave 79% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 23:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinymiCKe
52% · 297 games52% · 235 games
TimbersawBatyuk
Timbersaw
Puck
PuckNisha
49% · 329 games50% · 263 games
Monkey KingYuma
Monkey King
Doom
DoomAce
50% · 183 games44% · 409 games
PangolierTaiLung
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickBoxi
47% · 183 games49% · 146 games
LionThiolicor
Lion
Silencer
SilencertOfu
59% · 118 games49% · 57 games
Winter WyvernKJ
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 93%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2