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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 25 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 25 games
44%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 25 games
76%
Razor
Razorsignature
miCKe · 21 game
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
iNSaNiA · 20 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
iNSaNiA · 19 games
47%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Boxi · 18 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
miCKe · 18 games
67%

MOUZ

Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
bengan · 30 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 26 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 26 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Force · 23 games
30%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Force · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
NARMAN · 23 games
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 22 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Supream^ · 21 game
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
440 picks · 587 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
379 picks · 397 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
328 picks · 459 bans
50%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 392 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
306 picks · 589 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
290 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
278 picks · 328 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
263 picks · 776 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total88% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:19
Team Liquid 75%MOUZ 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
47% · 274 games53% · 109 games
BristlebackUlnit
Bristleback
Invoker
InvokerNisha
51% · 129 games43% · 119 games
TerrorbladeForce
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
51% · 233 games44% · 194 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
54% · 256 games47% · 287 games
PhoenixTobi
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
53% · 158 games57% · 341 game
ClockwerkImmersion
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct29:6
Team Liquid 75%MOUZ 25%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNisha
50% · 76 games50% · 68 games
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Primal Beast
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
55% · 211 games44% · 59 games
TerrorbladeForce
Terrorblade
Magnus
MagnusmiCKe
56% · 134 games51% · 114 games
Ember SpiritSupream^
Ember Spirit
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
50% · 163 games47% · 207 games
TuskTobi
Tusk
Lich
LichiNSaNiA
52% · 30 games44% · 166 games
PhoenixImmersion
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 88%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2