?
arrow_backBack to match
ESSENCE II · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 1:1
MOUZloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 40 games
68%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 33 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 30 games
60%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 30 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
miCKe · 23 games
61%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 22 games
50%

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 28 games
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Crystallis · 23 games
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
yamich · 19 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 19 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
BOOM · 18 games
61%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 18 games
28%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
BOOM · 17 games
35%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Seleri · 17 games
35%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 358 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 224 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
350 picks · 643 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 341 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
316 picks · 229 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
309 picks · 301 bans
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
293 picks · 426 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
291 picks · 393 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 26%
Hero pool strength59% Team Liquid
Head-to-head5 – 5
Model total63% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:11
Team Liquid 61%MOUZ 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 26:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNisha
50% · 29 games40% · 118 games
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Lone Druid
Lone DruidmiCKe
66% · 53 games44% · 50 games
Earth SpiritSupream^
Earth Spirit
Viper
ViperAce
58% · 62 games45% · 70 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyverntOfu
54% · 38 games50% · 14 games
MagnusOneJey
Magnus
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
48% · 138 games51% · 68 games
UndyingTobi
Undying
Game 2prediction missed19:39
Team Liquid 61%MOUZ 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by MOUZ in 43:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerNisha
51% · 103 games54% · 72 games
Nature's ProphetCrystallis
Nature's Prophet
Lifestealer
LifestealermiCKe
53% · 103 games46% · 127 games
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Undying
UndyingAce
51% · 102 games43% · 43 games
Earth SpiritSupream^
Earth Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoxi
48% · 129 games48% · 157 games
Shadow DemonOneJey
Shadow Demon
Mirana
MiranatOfu
51% · 39 games55% · 77 games
Treant ProtectorTobi
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 63%
Accuracy by game1 of 2