PGL Wallachia Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tinysignature
miCKe · 40 games
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 31 game
Muertasignature
Boxi · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Silenceroften banned
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Primal Beast
SabeRLight- · 19 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
iNSaNiA · 18 games
Natus Vincere
Magnussignature
BOOM · 20 games
Tinysignature
Sancity · 20 games
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shad · 18 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Ari · 18 games
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 13 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ari · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
568 picks · 643 bans
Ringmaster
490 picks · 249 bans
Jakiro
472 picks · 423 bans
Terrorblade
406 picks · 857 bans
Shadow Shaman
392 picks · 444 bans
Storm Spirit
384 picks · 565 bans
Tusk
379 picks · 338 bans
Ancient Apparition
354 picks · 834 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 68%
Hero pool strength51% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:33
Team Liquid 59%Natus Vincere 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorblademiCKe
UrsaYuragi
PangolierNisha
TinyCopy
AxeSabeRLight-
UndyingBOOM
Dark WillowBoxi
Keeper of the LightAri
BaneTobi
LionKaori
Game 2prediction correct54:21
Team Liquid 62%Natus Vincere 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 44:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
MedusaYuragi
AxeSabeRLight-
TinyCopy
Ember SpiritNisha
PangolierBOOM
BatriderBoxi
Keeper of the LightAri
BaneTobi
Naga SirenKaori
Game 3prediction missed25:34
Team Liquid 61%Natus Vincere 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 33:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocoptermiCKe
Templar AssassinYuragi
AxeSabeRLight-
PuckCopy
RikiNisha
Vengeful SpiritBOOM
WindrangerBoxi
MarciAri
Naga SirenTobi
WarlockKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 70%
Series resultNatus Vincere 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3