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BLAST Slam IV · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Natus Vincerewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 23 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
miCKe · 23 games
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 22 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 21 game
38%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 20 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 18 games
61%

Natus Vincere

Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 20 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 19 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 17 games
59%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
gotthejuice · 16 games
75%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Riddys · 16 games
56%
Sven
Svensignature
gotthejuice · 15 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
pma · 14 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
605 picks · 300 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
528 picks · 526 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
390 picks · 1091 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
361 picks · 188 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 592 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
348 picks · 390 bans
51%
Warlock
Warlock
346 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
337 picks · 259 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:33
Team Liquid 57%Natus Vincere 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 35:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinmiCKe
54% · 222 games49% · 327 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawAce
55% · 142 games44% · 174 games
Shadow FiendNiku
Shadow Fiend
Monkey King
Monkey KingNisha
56% · 270 games45% · 355 games
Pangolierpma
Pangolier
Jakiro
JakirotOfu
44% · 184 games46% · 123 games
BaneRiddys
Bane
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBoxi
55% · 221 game52% · 60 games
RikiZayac
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1