DreamLeague Season 25 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 0:2series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PARIVISIONwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Dark Willowsignature
Boxi · 27 games
Muerta
Boxi · 27 games
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 25 games
Tinysignature
Nisha · 24 games
Clockwerksignature
iNSaNiA · 23 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 21 game
PARIVISION
Batridersignature
9Class · 28 games
Enigmasignature
DM · 23 games
Pangoliersignature
No[o]ne · 23 games
Alchemistoften banned
Crystallis · 22 games
Chensignature
Dukalis · 22 games
Bristlebacksignature
DM · 21 game
Clockwerksignature
Dukalis · 21 game
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
506 picks · 645 bans
Phoenix
497 picks · 802 bans
Clockwerk
482 picks · 481 bans
Batrider
449 picks · 552 bans
Muerta
426 picks · 365 bans
Magnus
422 picks · 1013 bans
Gyrocopter
395 picks · 762 bans
Lich
386 picks · 209 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% PARIVISION
Head-to-head1 – 6
Model total69% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:28
Team Liquid 38%PARIVISION 62%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 24:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealermiCKe
TerrorbladeSatanic
Queen of PainNisha
PangolierNo[o]ne
TidehunterSabeRLight-
Dark SeerDM
MiranaBoxi
JakiroDukalis
Crystal MaideniNSaNiA
Leshrac9Class
Game 2prediction correct32:37
Team Liquid 38%PARIVISION 62%
The model gave 62% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by PARIVISION in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealermiCKe
Naga SirenSatanic
Storm SpiritNisha
RazorNo[o]ne
TechiesBoxi
Dark SeerDM
Sand KingSabeRLight-
Batrider9Class
EnchantressiNSaNiA
DisruptorDukalis
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 69%
Series resultPARIVISION 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2