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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PSG Questloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusksignature
Boxi · 30 games
73%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
81%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
iNSaNiA · 21 game
71%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Boxi · 20 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
zai · 18 games
83%
Undying
Undyingsignature
iNSaNiA · 18 games
72%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
miCKe · 17 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
iNSaNiA · 16 games
88%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 27 games
74%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 19 games
68%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Wuiter · 15 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
No!ob · 14 games
64%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Kaori · 13 games
77%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
No!ob · 12 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
850 picks · 597 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
612 picks · 421 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 541 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 428 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
508 picks · 813 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
454 picks · 937 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
454 picks · 310 bans
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
404 picks · 291 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 69%
Hero pool strength52% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:32
Team Liquid 76%PSG Quest 24%
The model gave 76% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 1:02:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SnipermiCKe
46% · 68 games44% · 172 games
Templar AssassinTA2000
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
Beastmasterzai
60% · 253 games50% · 345 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Puck
PuckNisha
60% · 282 games42% · 38 games
VenomancerWuiter
Venomancer
Mirana
MiranaBoxi
49% · 256 games47% · 144 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
53% · 165 games45% · 325 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct22:7
Team Liquid 73%PSG Quest 27%
The model gave 73% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangermiCKe
39% · 147 games46% · 50 games
SpectreTA2000
Spectre
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendNisha
52% · 188 games51% · 99 games
TidehunterWuiter
Tidehunter
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightzai
53% · 161 game48% · 328 games
Death ProphetNo!ob
Death Prophet
Tusk
TuskBoxi
50% · 398 games49% · 484 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
60% · 224 games50% · 157 games
SilencerKaori
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct33:10
Team Liquid 74%PSG Quest 26%
The model gave 74% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetmiCKe
52% · 381 game47% · 31 game
Anti-MageTA2000
Anti-Mage
Sniper
SniperNisha
48% · 93 games54% · 216 games
BatriderNo!ob
Batrider
Slardar
Slardarzai
48% · 46 games53% · 351 game
Death ProphetWuiter
Death Prophet
Tusk
TuskBoxi
47% · 408 games50% · 541 game
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
52% · 374 games48% · 163 games
EnchantressKaori
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 88%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3