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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tiny
Tinysignature
miCKe · 40 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Boxi · 39 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
miCKe · 33 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 28 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Boxi · 24 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 22 games
73%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%

Team Falcons

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Cr1t- · 37 games
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Skiter · 31 game
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
68%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Cr1t- · 21 game
52%
Lion
Lionsignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
76%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Sneyking · 20 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 20 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
487 picks · 336 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
356 picks · 443 bans
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 542 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
317 picks · 484 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
314 picks · 635 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
295 picks · 324 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
284 picks · 205 bans
47%
Snapfire
Snapfire
276 picks · 437 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head6 – 9
Model total52% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:43
Team Liquid 50%Team Falcons 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 55:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinamiCKe
49% · 42 games57% · 43 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Invoker
InvokerNisha
48% · 59 games47% · 41 game
EarthshakerMalr1ne
Earthshaker
Underlord
UnderlordAce
43% · 97 games45% · 69 games
RazorATF
Razor
Rubick
RubicktOfu
50% · 59 games52% · 99 games
MiranaSneyking
Mirana
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
51% · 35 games62% · 40 games
Bounty HunterCr1t-
Bounty Hunter
Game 2prediction correct40:11
Team Liquid 51%Team Falcons 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangermiCKe
46% · 214 games50% · 503 games
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Centaur Warrunner
Underlord
UnderlordAce
49% · 154 games49% · 112 games
SvenSkiter
Sven
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNisha
59% · 116 games56% · 111 games
LinaMalr1ne
Lina
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
48% · 455 games47% · 243 games
EnchantressCr1t-
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskBoxi
46% · 319 games53% · 289 games
BaneSneyking
Bane
Game 3prediction correct39:21
Team Liquid 51%Team Falcons 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidmiCKe
50% · 58 games51% · 138 games
Sand KingMalr1ne
Sand King
Lina
LinaNisha
57% · 25 games52% · 130 games
LifestealerSkiter
Lifestealer
Viper
ViperAce
51% · 68 games44% · 107 games
RazorATF
Razor
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
55% · 320 games42% · 26 games
Crystal MaidenSneyking
Crystal Maiden
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBoxi
51% · 203 games47% · 273 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 52%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3