?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Stockholm Dota Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Mars
Marsoften banned
zai · 16 games
44%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 13 games
46%
Io
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
58%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 12 games
92%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 11 games
36%
Razor
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
64%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Boxi · 10 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
iNSaNiA · 9 games
56%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 23 games
74%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 12 games
75%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 12 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Mira · 10 games
80%
Io
Iosignature
Mira · 10 games
90%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
90%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
467 picks · 626 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
448 picks · 289 bans
57%
Tiny
Tiny
436 picks · 487 bans
50%
Sand King
Sand King
396 picks · 525 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
361 picks · 784 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
344 picks · 551 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
340 picks · 541 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
330 picks · 502 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength59% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:7
Team Liquid 35%Team Spirit 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 41:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetMATUMBAMAN
47% · 52 games57% · 229 games
Templar AssassinYatoro
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritmiCKe
49% · 240 games49% · 263 games
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
Pangolier
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightzai
46% · 213 games50% · 162 games
TidehunterCollapse
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
48% · 262 games56% · 115 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Pugna
PugnaiNSaNiA
42% · 64 games56% · 62 games
Ogre MagiMiposhka
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction missed20:9
Team Liquid 33%Team Spirit 67%
The model gave 67% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 31:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistMATUMBAMAN
little data51% · 27 games
Troll WarlordYatoro
Troll Warlord
Visage
VisagemiCKe
58% · 14 games53% · 28 games
UnderlordCollapse
Underlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightzai
49% · 196 games47% · 173 games
Storm SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
48% · 206 games53% · 127 games
Keeper of the LightMira
Keeper of the Light
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectoriNSaNiA
58% · 93 games40% · 154 games
GrimstrokeMiposhka
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 74%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2