?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Tideboundloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Muerta
Muertasignature
Boxi · 37 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
SabeRLight- · 30 games
70%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Nisha · 30 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
iNSaNiA · 25 games
80%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Nisha · 24 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SabeRLight- · 22 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 22 games
59%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Nisha · 22 games
64%

Team Tidebound

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
shiro · 12 games
92%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
y` · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
88%
Magnus
Magnussignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
75%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
pLAnet · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
shiro · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Faith_bian · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
500 picks · 684 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
437 picks · 706 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
426 picks · 413 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
413 picks · 325 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
375 picks · 876 bans
59%
Magnus
Magnus
375 picks · 957 bans
58%
Batrider
Batrider
372 picks · 429 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
368 picks · 505 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 71%
Hero pool strength53% Team Tidebound
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:31
Team Liquid 64%Team Tidebound 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:03:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorblademiCKe
43% · 168 games48% · 86 games
SniperNothingToSay
Sniper
Puck
PuckNisha
51% · 221 game51% · 116 games
Phantom Assassinshiro
Phantom Assassin
Magnus
MagnusSabeRLight-
52% · 249 games54% · 225 games
Shadow DemonpLAnet
Shadow Demon
Silencer
SilenceriNSaNiA
46% · 28 games48% · 213 games
Muertay`
Muerta
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidBoxi
52% · 55 games55% · 81 game
TidehunterFaith_bian
Tidehunter
Game 2prediction correct33:5
Team Liquid 62%Team Tidebound 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocoptermiCKe
50% · 370 games48% · 218 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Monkey King
Monkey KingNisha
51% · 219 games52% · 163 games
Lifestealershiro
Lifestealer
Mars
MarsSabeRLight-
40% · 203 games64% · 244 games
MagnusFaith_bian
Magnus
Muerta
MuertaBoxi
48% · 261 game55% · 138 games
Cheny`
Chen
Jakiro
JakiroiNSaNiA
44% · 133 games48% · 423 games
BatriderpLAnet
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 74%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2