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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 32 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 21 game
81%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
iNSaNiA · 20 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
miCKe · 20 games
80%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nisha · 20 games
70%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 19 games
84%
Doom
Doomsignature
zai · 19 games
79%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Boxi · 17 games
82%

Tundra Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 31 game
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
55%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 27 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 25 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 21 game
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
699 picks · 598 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
559 picks · 492 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
458 picks · 1108 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
449 picks · 811 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
408 picks · 1040 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
385 picks · 835 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
382 picks · 549 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
381 picks · 209 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Team Liquid
Head-to-head6 – 0
Model total64% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:24
Team Liquid 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekermiCKe
50% · 83 games61% · 55 games
MedusaSkiter
Medusa
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerNisha
65% · 23 games52% · 105 games
Doom33
Doom
Magnus
Magnuszai
41% · 78 games47% · 64 games
TimbersawNine
Timbersaw
Clinkz
ClinkzBoxi
48% · 27 games38% · 26 games
Bounty HunterSneyking
Bounty Hunter
Oracle
OracleiNSaNiA
48% · 47 games62% · 8 games
Vengeful SpiritSaksa
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct32:33
Team Liquid 59%Tundra Esports 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusazai
52% · 71 game50% · 93 games
TimbersawNine
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
40% · 115 games48% · 120 games
BloodseekerSkiter
Bloodseeker
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidmiCKe
56% · 132 games52% · 99 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Pugna
PugnaBoxi
49% · 48 games46% · 148 games
BatriderSaksa
Batrider
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
55% · 169 games52% · 75 games
LichSneyking
Lich
Game 3prediction missed35:45
Team Liquid 58%Tundra Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 57:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
48% · 117 games55% · 69 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Medusa
Medusazai
49% · 62 games53% · 191 game
Batrider33
Batrider
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
44% · 77 games57% · 46 games
Dark WillowNine
Dark Willow
Bloodseeker
BloodseekermiCKe
51% · 90 games43% · 87 games
SlarkSaksa
Slark
Disruptor
DisruptoriNSaNiA
52% · 146 games49% · 99 games
TechiesSneyking
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 64%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3