?
arrow_backBack to match
PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 27 games
56%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 27 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
54%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 21 game
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 20 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 20 games
45%
Axe
Axeoften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
53%

Tundra Esports

Axe
Axesignature
33 · 33 games
64%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Whitemon · 26 games
54%
Bane
Banesignature
Whitemon · 24 games
71%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 22 games
59%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 20 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Crystallis · 19 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
Saksa · 19 games
58%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 18 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
765 picks · 359 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
596 picks · 617 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
554 picks · 300 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
458 picks · 522 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
452 picks · 268 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
445 picks · 730 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
438 picks · 1159 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
427 picks · 267 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head6 – 7
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:16
Team Liquid 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 42:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNisha
43% · 265 games50% · 235 games
UrsaPure~
Ursa
Monkey King
Monkey KingmiCKe
50% · 214 games50% · 146 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Abaddon
AbaddonAce
52% · 233 games62% · 43 games
Broodmother33
Broodmother
Snapfire
SnapfiretOfu
44% · 291 game49% · 353 games
DisruptorWhitemon
Disruptor
Bane
BaneBoxi
55% · 172 games50% · 398 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed36:15
Team Liquid 46%Tundra Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezmiCKe
50% · 14 games51% · 88 games
Lycan33
Lycan
Leshrac
LeshracNisha
51% · 144 games51% · 207 games
Dragon KnightPure~
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
58% · 172 games42% · 121 game
Queen of Painbzm
Queen of Pain
Hoodwink
HoodwinktOfu
47% · 269 games46% · 104 games
PugnaWhitemon
Pugna
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
51% · 47 games52% · 126 games
MuertaAri
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2