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Elite League · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Liquidloss 1:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Luna
Lunasignature
miCKe · 24 games
71%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
iNSaNiA · 24 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Boxi · 20 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
33 · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 16 games
63%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
miCKe · 16 games
69%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 13 games
46%
Muerta
Muerta
Boxi · 13 games
54%

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Dy · 14 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
71%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Xxs · 13 games
85%
Mirana
Miranasignature
XinQ · 12 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 12 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
XinQ · 10 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
XinQ · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 792 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
463 picks · 961 bans
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
454 picks · 201 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
454 picks · 604 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
451 picks · 347 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
444 picks · 707 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 204 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
427 picks · 731 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total53% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:39
Team Liquid 47%Xtreme Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierNisha
51% · 315 games51% · 296 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
49% · 265 games57% · 33 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Kunkka
Kunkka33
51% · 175 games49% · 334 games
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
Centaur Warrunner
Techies
TechiesBoxi
47% · 329 games49% · 190 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritiNSaNiA
50% · 250 games51% · 481 game
BatriderDy
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed50:27
Team Liquid 49%Xtreme Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:02:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingmiCKe
49% · 214 games46% · 161 game
RazorAme
Razor
Doom
Doom33
52% · 165 games61% · 32 games
SniperXm
Sniper
Batrider
BatriderBoxi
51% · 250 games49% · 270 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Kunkka
KunkkaNisha
55% · 156 games46% · 174 games
Dark WillowXinQ
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeiNSaNiA
50% · 163 games49% · 311 games
Shadow DemonDy
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2