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PGL Wallachia Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 26 games
54%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 25 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Boxi · 24 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 20 games
45%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SabeRLight- · 19 games
37%
Marci
Marcisignature
Boxi · 19 games
63%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Boxi · 19 games
37%

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
XinQ · 23 games
74%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
xNova · 20 games
65%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xNova · 18 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Xm · 17 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Xm · 16 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Xxs · 12 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ame · 12 games
58%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Xxs · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
752 picks · 350 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
606 picks · 632 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
542 picks · 298 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
442 picks · 263 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 1181 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
440 picks · 487 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
431 picks · 717 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
386 picks · 250 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 73%
Hero pool strength57% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total54% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:5
Team Liquid 53%Xtreme Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezmiCKe
37% · 18 games43% · 125 games
LeshracNothingToSay
Leshrac
Marci
MarciAce
56% · 227 games46% · 162 games
MorphlingAme
Morphling
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
53% · 349 games45% · 163 games
MarsXxs
Mars
Naga Siren
Naga SirentOfu
62% · 144 games49% · 301 game
Tuskfy
Tusk
Lion
LionBoxi
51% · 202 games45% · 189 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct13:41
Team Liquid 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonmiCKe
51% · 240 games51% · 111 games
WeaverAme
Weaver
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNisha
54% · 271 game45% · 474 games
PangolierXxs
Pangolier
Axe
AxeAce
47% · 122 games49% · 157 games
SlardarNothingToSay
Slardar
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemontOfu
50% · 223 games51% · 210 games
EnchantressxNova
Enchantress
Tusk
TuskBoxi
51% · 388 games52% · 292 games
Snapfirefy
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct39:10
Team Liquid 51%Xtreme Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 51:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
MarcimiCKe
48% · 218 games52% · 235 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Dark Seer
Dark SeerAce
49% · 186 games49% · 217 games
BristlebackXxs
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarNisha
50% · 198 games53% · 160 games
EarthshakerNothingToSay
Earthshaker
Silencer
SilencertOfu
48% · 226 games48% · 168 games
Pugnafy
Pugna
Bane
BaneBoxi
54% · 192 games49% · 240 games
DisruptorxNova
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 54%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3