DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 1:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:0
AADVISORYloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 11 games
Pucksignature
mellojul · 10 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 10 games
Sand King
mellojul · 9 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
ADVISORY
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
564 picks · 646 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 327 bans
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 683 bans
Snapfire
450 picks · 166 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 530 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 203 bans
Mars
391 picks · 526 bans
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Team Lynx 77%ADVISORY 23%
The model gave 77% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 77%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1