CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aalohasquadloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 15 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 15 games
Sand King
mellojul · 14 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 13 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 11 games
alohasquad
Ember Spiritoften banned
спортик · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Ringmaster
ALOHADANCE · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
спортик · 4 games
Tusk
ALOHADANCE · 4 games
Jakirooften banned
Fishman · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
ALOHADANCE · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
617 picks · 959 bans
Tusk
520 picks · 422 bans
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 628 bans
Shadow Demon
435 picks · 974 bans
Tiny
419 picks · 465 bans
Dragon Knight
417 picks · 521 bans
Warlock
415 picks · 253 bans
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 661 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
Team Lynx 63%alohasquad 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 45:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta7jesu
ClinkzShigetsu
LargoVladikTheHtiviy
Queen of Painспортик
Primal Beastmellojul
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Omniknightkreker
RubickALOHADANCE
Dark WillowQBFY
UndyingFishman
Game 2prediction correct37:16
Team Lynx 62%alohasquad 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver7jesu
SlarkShigetsu
Timbersawmellojul
Puckспортик
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
BrewmasterCloud
Phoenixkreker
Shadow DemonALOHADANCE
Nyx AssassinQBFY
DisruptorFishman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 72%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2