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European Pro League Season 33 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
42%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 10 games
30%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
7jesu · 8 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 7 games
14%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 7 games
43%

Nemiga Gaming

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
young G · 21 game
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
bashka · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Covisnine · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
xsvampire · 15 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsvampire · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
xsvampire · 12 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
young G · 12 games
25%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Covisnine · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
780 picks · 362 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
582 picks · 300 bans
51%
Disruptor
Disruptor
575 picks · 574 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
506 picks · 353 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
496 picks · 599 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
484 picks · 273 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
478 picks · 749 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
433 picks · 1108 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:36
Team Lynx 52%Nemiga Gaming 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 59:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter7jesu
53% · 363 games47% · 136 games
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
52% · 208 games49% · 242 games
Dragon Knightchempik
Dragon Knight
Slardar
SlardarVladikTheHtiviy
51% · 193 games47% · 240 games
PangolierCovisnine
Pangolier
49% · 146 games
Shadow DemonVaniLLl
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed14:36
Team Lynx 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling7jesu
53% · 180 games47% · 156 games
Gyrocopterchempik
Gyrocopter
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
53% · 210 games44% · 84 games
TidehunterCovisnine
Tidehunter
Axe
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
51% · 107 games51% · 64 games
Leshracyoung G
Leshrac
48% · 193 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 52%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2