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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 1:2
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 25 games
64%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 24 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 22 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 19 games
74%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 19 games
53%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 19 games
58%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 22 games
36%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 14 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 11 games
45%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ariel · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 557 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 410 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
469 picks · 529 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
465 picks · 413 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
462 picks · 235 bans
58%
Warlock
Warlock
398 picks · 245 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 901 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
389 picks · 1021 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% Team Lynx
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total61% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:50
Team Lynx 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 55:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tiny7jesu
52% · 329 games53% · 138 games
Faceless Voidselfhate
Faceless Void
Tidehunter
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
52% · 208 games53% · 466 games
Slardaryoung G
Slardar
Pangolier
Pangoliermellojul
40% · 293 games47% · 281 game
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Batrider
Batriderkreker
53% · 290 games49% · 86 games
Techiesariel
Techies
Hoodwink
HoodwinkQBFY
52% · 361 game50% · 510 games
DisruptorVaniLLl
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct25:15
Team Lynx 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 41:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Luna7jesu
52% · 116 games54% · 260 games
Muertaselfhate
Muerta
Tiny
Tinymellojul
48% · 438 games59% · 277 games
Slardaryoung G
Slardar
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
50% · 197 games44% · 273 games
PangolierCovisnine
Pangolier
Phoenix
Phoenixkreker
51% · 269 games49% · 264 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Rubick
RubickQBFY
43% · 169 games52% · 115 games
SilencerVaniLLl
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed18:22
Team Lynx 56%Nemiga Gaming 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 46:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Luna7jesu
50% · 127 games51% · 178 games
Terrorbladeselfhate
Terrorblade
Beastmaster
Beastmastermellojul
52% · 478 games51% · 215 games
Queen of Painyoung G
Queen of Pain
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerVladikTheHtiviy
47% · 196 games54% · 191 game
Centaur WarrunnerCovisnine
Centaur Warrunner
Silencer
Silencerkreker
44% · 175 games54% · 210 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Rubick
RubickQBFY
53% · 144 games45% · 326 games
JakiroVaniLLl
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 61%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3